Near-term government decisions to avoid future spectrum bottlenecks are needed to benefit billions of consumers and businesses in a 6G world.
London – WEBWIRE – Thursday, November 20, 2025
Next-generation 6G networks will requireup to three times more mid-band spectrum than is typically available todayto keep pace with surging demand for data, AI-powered services and advanced digital applications, according to new analysis published by theGSMA, whichrepresentsthemobileecosystemworldwide.
Vision 2040: Spectrum for the Future of Mobile Connectivity, a comprehensive global assessment of spectrum requirements forthecoming6Gera,concludes thataglobalaverage of 23 GHz of mid-band spectrumper countrywill be required in20352040to meetmobile networkcapacity needs in the highest-demand urban areas, withhigher-demand countries needing 2.54 GHz.
Compiled by analysts at GSMA Intelligence and the GSMAsglobalspectrum team, the studyis designed toprovide guidance toregulators and policymakers as the mobile industry prepares forwide-scale6G deployments from2030.This is particularly importantas governments negotiate future mobile bands ahead of the crucialWRC-27treaty conference held by theInternational Telecommunication Unionin two years time.
Thereportsanalysis showsthatcountries must act now to secure enough spectrum for 6G, or risk slower speeds, rising congestion and lost economic opportunity in the 2030s.The GSMA cautions that without early government planning, consumers could face poorer connectivity, businesses may struggle to adopt new technologies, and national digital economies could lose competitiveness in the global transition to 6G.
John Giusti, Chief Regulatory Officer, GSMA, said:
This study shows that the 6G era will require three times more mid-band spectrum than is available today. Satisfying these spectrum requirements will support robust and sustainable connectivity, deliver digitalambitionsand help economies grow. I hope this reportprovidesuseful insights to governments as they strive to meet the connectivity needs of their citizens in the coming decade.
Key findings from the report:
6G deployments from 2030; 5 billion connections by 2040
6G networks are expected to begin commercial deployment in2030, with significant early rollouts in China, Japan, South Korea, the US, the GCC states, Europe,Vietnamand India.
By2040, the study forecasts:
- More than 5 billion 6G connections, around half of all mobile connections globally
- 4G and 5G will remain essential, witharound2 billion 4Gand3 billion 5G connectionsstill in use
Global mobile traffic to reach up to 3,900exabytes permonth by 2040
Based on the studys demand scenarios, global mobile traffic is forecast to reach:
- 1,700 EB/monthin the low-growth scenario
- 3,900 EB/monthin the high-growth scenario
This equates to140360 GB per mobile connection per monthby 2040.
Traffic growth will be driven by continued 5G adoption, increasing numbers of power users, and new 6G-enabled applications including XR, integrated sensing and autonomous systems.The10% of mobile usersthatgenerate 6070% of total traffictoday will increase over time, and the report notes this level of usage will become normal behaviour by 2040.
Urban areas produce 83% of traffic but onlyrepresent5% ofgloballand area
The study finds that spectrum needs aredeterminedby traffic in the densest urban zones:
- 83% of mobile trafficoccurs in urban areas
- Those areas account forjust ~5%of geographic territory
- Traffic density is9 higher in very dense urban areasthan other urban zones
- andalmost 700 higherthan rural areas
These concentrations are where mid-band capacity becomes critical.
23 GHz of mid-band spectrum needed globally by 20352040
Taking into accountprojected traffic, expected improvements in spectral efficiency and modelling of dense urban capacity, the study concludes:
- Global average needs:23 GHzof mid-band spectrum
- Higher-demand countries(the top 50%):2.54 GHz
- Most countries today have~1 GHzidentifiedfor mobile use
- Therefore,anadditional13 GHzmay berequired to meet 6G-era demand
2 GHz needed by 2030 to avoid congestion
The analysis warns that if only 1 GHz of mid-band spectrum is available:
- Cities with over 50% of the worlds urban population will be capacity-constrained by 2030 (the beginning of the 6G deployment cycle) if mid-band spectrumremainsat todays levels.
To prevent a decline in user experience, the report stresses that2 GHz of mid-band spectrum must be operational by 2030.
Spectrum Policy Implications
The reportidentifiesthe key candidate mid-bands under study for future mobile use:
- 3.84.2 GHz:+200400 MHz
- 4.44.99 GHz:+400600 MHz
- Upper 6 GHz (6.4257.125 GHz):+700 MHz
- 7.1258.4 GHz:+6001,275 MHz
The GSMA notes that each band has existing incumbents, meaninglong-lead-time planning is essentialforanalysing spectrum use and release, device ecosystemdevelopmentand global harmonisation.
About GSMA
The GSMA is a global organisation unifying the mobile ecosystem to discover, develop and deliver innovation foundational to positive business environments and societal change. Our vision is to unlock the full power of connectivity so that people, industry, and society thrive.Representingmobile operators and organisations across the mobile ecosystem and adjacent industries, the GSMA delivers for its members across three broad pillars: Connectivity for Good, Industry Services and Solutions, and Outreach. This activity includes advancing policy, tackling todays biggest societal challenges, underpinning the technology and interoperability that make mobile work, and providing the worlds largest platform toconvenethe mobile ecosystem at the MWC and M360 series of events.
We invite you to find out more at gsma.com
Media Contacts
GSMA Press Office
pressoffice@gsma.com
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